Bull or Bust

a bull's view



What can I say…thank you Nvidia? Again? Let’s be honest, the huge selloff in tech a week or so ago was typical market bs. It’s the norm these days and if you cannot handle a selloff or a drop of 7-8% in any one holding (or all at once in this case) then you simply don’t need to be in the market. Period. This is my greatest lesson learned over the years – don’t panic! If I can provide any advice at all to beginner investors it is to always plan for disaster. Keep a lot in cash for those special moments such as the tech selloff I am talking about.

Today was a good day, tomorrow may be a bad day. It’s the way the market works and in order to succeed you must understand and accept this fact. Believe in the companies you are investing in and learn to hold strong when everyone else is spitting venom (as an old friend used to say). The masses love to follow each other. If the trend is to hate on Nvidia that’s what everybody will do. If the trend is to love Amazon, then yes, that’s what everyone will do. Honestly, you must learn to do the opposite or at least be able to see when it’s all crap.


For example, let’s take the big news of the weekend: Amazon’s purchase (or pending purchase) of Whole Foods. What a bunch of noise and drama! It’s the death of grocery stores as we know them! People will never shop for food the same way again! Dear God sell Kroger! Poor Kroger…

The bottom line is many of these comments will probably come to fruition. This transaction could very well change how we shop for food forever. I am not arguing with any of this. What I want to do is get you to see the other side of the coin…Amazon has a huge mountain to climb. Grocery delivery will be the largest logistical problem ever solved and the idea of eating sushi delivered by drones may not sit well with most consumers. I sure won’t eat it.

Amazon could, theoretically, spend an absolute fortune trying to find the solution. It can do this because it lives on our Prime Membership dues and, unlike Kroger, doesn’t care about grocery margins. Hell, they’ll just run in the red for years while they figure it out and while they put all the other competition in the ground. Once they accomplish this they can charge whatever they want and shoot straight into the black. I’m sure Jeff Bezos sees this as a huge challenge and if I were him…I would love it.

Regardless, think strategically. Amazon will burn through cash trying to figure this out. This will indeed hit their bottom line in a negative way. I would not be jumping into Amazon right now thinking it’s going to shoot higher because of groceries. I don’t see that…at least not in the near future.


Everyone is talking about King Amazon and I’m with them I love Amazon, but while everyone else is running through the door to buy it up I will probably be watching from the sidelines. At least through a few more quarterly earnings. Nvidia is the ticket and everyone says it’s getting too overvalued. I call bs and say most don’t realize what’s happening in the background. I have a sneaky suspicion we will look back five (5) years from now and wish we had mortgaged the house to buy more. Yes, this can also be said for Amazon, but just be careful.

Listen to your gut. Don’t listen to the television or really anyone else and always be prepared for the inevitable pullback. Read the WSJ and think! When I read the article a few months ago in the WSJ about XPO Logistics [stock_quote symbol=xpo] and how they are going to provide the last mile for Amazon furniture and appliance delivery I immediately thought it was going higher. That was around a month ago when it was $50.00 per share. Yeah, $50.00! Wish I had gone with my gut on that one!

Keep cash on hand and remember one incredibly important rule: if a stock shoots up really hard (which one you own will do this eventually) do not go nuts and convince yourself it will continue higher. You sell it, take the gain, and wait. Every time I have ever seen anything shoot up hard it fell back down just as hard. Understand if it’s really going to go up it will do it gradually. When it shoots up you can sell it and just buy it back later after it falls back to Earth…


Below are my holdings as of today. I have trimmed some and added to others (mainly Nvidia). I have ignored the television and what everyone is blabbing about and concentrated on my gut and my gut alone. I love charts and I love analyzing them, but everything I do really comes down to my gut and how I feel about the trade. I am heavy into tech, but that’s my forte and I believe it is the best place to find growth. Amazon has proven this fact. They even made grocery stores part of the tech industry!

Autodesk [stock_quote symbol=adsk]

Cisco [stock_quote symbol=csco]

3D Systems [stock_quote symbol=ddd]

Denbury Resources [stock_quote symbol=dnr]

GE [stock_quote symbol=ge]

Intel [stock_quote symbol=intc]

Nvidia [stock_quote symbol=nvda]

Square Inc [stock_quote symbol=sq]

Take-Two Interactive [stock_quote symbol=ttwo]

Western Digital [stock_quote symbol=wdc]



[stock_quote symbol=rad]

June 15, 2017 02:31 PM ET (BZ Newswire) — News

A deal announced over 1.5 years ago still hangs in the balance. Whether the deal clears the regulatory hurdle has become a heated debate in itself. With the passing of each day, pessimism is abounding, with the scuttling of a few mega healthcare deals throwing in the possibility of the Walgreens Boots Alliance Inc (NASDAQ:WBA)– Rite Aid Corporation (NYSE:RAD) deal being blocked. For the uninitiated, here are the deal details:

Drug store chains Walgreens and Rite Aid announced on October 27, 2015 an agreement under which the former will acquire the latter for $17.2 billion in cash.

The deal valued each of Rite Aid shares at $9, a 48-percent premium over the closing price on the day ahead of the deal announcement. The companies had said then, the deal would likely close in the second half of calendar year. The deal was expected to be accretive to Walgreens earnings in the first full year after the closing, with synergies estimated to be in excess of $1 billion.Subsequently, on February 4, 2016, Rite Aid shareholders voted in favor of the merger.

The FTC Roadblock

Walgreens was then left with the unenviable task of negotiating with the Federal Trade Commission regarding the potential divestitures both the parties should make in order to secure regulatory approval. Against this backdrop, reports emerged that Kroger Co (NYSE:KR) could lap up hundreds of stores of both the companies that would help them win regulatory backing.

Deadline Extended

A year after the announcement of the deal, Walgreens and Rite Aid pushed back the closure deadline to early 2017 from the previous deadline of the second half of 2016.

Meanwhile, Walgreens and Rite Aid announced in December 2016 that they have agreed to sell 865 Rite Aid stores and certain related assets to Fred’s, Inc. (NASDAQ:FRED) for $950 million in cash. The deal, however, was contingent on the closure of the Walgreens–Rite Aid deal.

Deutsche Bank had commented then Fred’s had taken a giant leap in its transformation from a dollar store to a bona fide pharmacy, with the proposed purchase. The company was seen to transform into a long-term viable competitor in the space, with a more national footprint.

Another Delay, Reduction In Offer Price

Come January of 2017, the prospects of consummation of the deal worsened after Walgreens, citing a further delay, lowered the deal price to $7–$6.50 per share. The price range meant that the price would be fixed at $7 if the FTC seeks divestment of 1,000 or fewer stores, and a lower price of $6.50 would come into play if about 1,000–1,200 stores were to be divested. The companies said the deal would take another six months to close.

The delay prompted Walgreen to slash the upper end of its 2017 adjusted earnings per share guidance to $5.08 from $5.20.
On May 8, the companies said they have certified substantial compliance with the second request from the FTC. As per a January 2016 agreement with the FTC, the companies have agreed not to close the deal before 60 full calendar days following the compliance with the second request, giving the FTC time for either approving or blocking the deal. The 60-day period beginning May 8 would end on July 7.However, there is still no clarity on the status of the deal.

Parties Relay Pessimism

The situation now looks grim, according to a report in TheStreet.com. The report quoted a SEC filing by Rite Aid, which carried a communication from John Standley, the chairman and CEO of Rite Aid, and Ken Martindale, the CEO of Rite Aid Store, to the employees. The tone concerning the completion of deal was somber, as they stated that they expect a decision soon. This is in stark contrast to the company’s earlier statements that an approval is likely.

Walgreens also relayed its apprehension concerning the consummation of the deal by deciding not to issue additional debt securities to replace the notes to be redeemed if the Rite Aid deal did not go through by June 1.

However, if there is one, who is still optimistic, it is Fred’s, which said on its earnings call that it is working collaboratively with Walgreens, Rite Aid and the FTC to win approval for the purchase of Rite Aid stores, earmarked for divestment.

How The Stocks Fared Amid The M&A Drama?

Walgreens shares, which tumbled in the aftermath of the deal announcement, losing over $20 in the process, recouped some of the losses and have been locked in a trading range of $77.50–$87.50 since then. Meanwhile, Rite Aid shares soared about 43 percent on the day of the deal announcement. The rally, however, did not take it past the then-offer price of $9. In anticipation of the deal closure, the stock held between $6 and $8 mark until January 2017, when the companies postponed the deal closure date for the second time and also trimmed the offer price. From a high of $8.67 on January 13, 2017, the stock has come off notably to $3 on June 9, losing 65 percent of its value in the bargain.

That said, the sell-off has made Rite Aid shares an attractive proposition, especially if the deal does go through at $7 dollar per share of Rite Aid stock. The intrinsic value of Rite Aid, according to X-fin.com is $3.13, while GuruFocus estimates it to be $1.89.

The intrinsic value, according to Investopedia, is the actual value of a company, taking into consideration all aspects of the business. It is the value derived out of fundamental analysis of a company.

Given that the current market price is closer to its intrinsic value, there is more upside potential for owners of Rite Aid stock than the downside risk, given the $7 offer price. Even if the stock falls to $1.89 (GuruFocus’ intrinsic value estimate) in the eventuality of the deal being blocked, a person who is invested in Rite Aid stands to lose roughly 40 percent. However, if the deal is finally approved after all the twists and turns, the investor could profit to the tune of 124 percent, as the stock would trade up close to the offer price when the hurdles are cleared.



What a week! Whew!! The high’s, the low’s, the euphoria surrounding the great run of NVDA! Yes, even a veteran such as myself can get caught up in the moment and forget the fundamental rules of the game. The most important being: what goes up, must come down…


As they say, stocks rarely give you time to think when they hit the top before they come crashing down. I was too busy Friday morning laughing at the week of gains to realize what was about to happen. Well, that’s not exactly true. I looked at Hillary and said I need to sell it all, but I’m not taking that risk. The risk for NVDA is still to the upside.

Did I sell? Actually, yes. I was smart enough to take my largest gain close to the top. I sold the JAN 145 CALL on NVDA at a nice 70% profit. Did I jump back in too soon? Maybe. Maybe not. I read the chart, watched it revert back to nearly where it opened on Monday morning and I started adding to my JAN 2019 125 CALL’s. Too soon? Maybe…but that happened to be right where it turned around at $142.75 and shot straight back to $151 and some change. That’s a hard pop and obviously a lot of people were waiting on that same spot. I love charts!


I did purchase another two (2) JAN 2019 125 CALL’s before the market closed Friday. I had to sell some other positions to clear them which I didn’t want to do, but I have a plan. I am now 90% into NVDA which is really stupid. However, as I just said, I have a much longer plan…hence the 2019 calls. Everything I do is strategic in nature and always has been. Most think I fly by the seat of my pants, but I put a great deal of thought into everything I do. Especially when it comes to my f’n money! ha!

I do anticipate the selling to continue next week. As I have said many times before I am trying to accumulate a minimum of 1000 shares of NVDA with a cost basis at or below $125.00 per share. I’m trying hard to do it now before we wake up in 2018 and it’s 200+ per share and $125.00 is just a memory. You laugh, but I remember owning it at $87.00 and selling at $120.90 thinking that was just too high. Should have kept those shares! I also should have kept the 500 shares I owned with a cost basis of $105.86. Ugh! Regardless, $200.00 per share is coming. Fight all you want and short it if you must, but it’s going to continue higher.


Remember the “plan not to care” post a few days ago? This is precisely what I meant. I plan not to care. I have nearly two (2) years to call the shares and I still own DEC and JAN 110 CALL’s for 2017 and 2018 respectively. I’m covered. I need a measly three (3) more calls to hit my goal and I shall have them. Patience.

How do I plan not to care? The strike prices. I own the $110 and $125 strikes on all calls. That’s why I sold the $145 at the top. I didn’t really want to call those shares anyway because that would ruin my cost basis plan. I was up 70% and it was a strike I didn’t like so I dumped them. Now, I don’t care. No matter what I would pay $110 and $125 per share for NVDA no matter what happens so I’m happy. Let it go to $130…still above my strike and in-the-money.

There is some argument towards break even and what I have paid for the calls, but I’m not really worried if you can’t tell.

Will I buy other stuff? Yes. I plan to start funding this portfolio much more heavily in the coming months and I’ll have plenty to invest. It ususally takes me a few months to recover from tax season and I’m almost there. We have a primary savings goal we must meet before I get to really add to my mad money!

This is another aspect of my longer term goal…I know what’s coming on my side as well which makes all the difference.


American Eagle [stock_quote symbol=aeo]

GE [stock_quote symbol=ge]

Take-Two [stock_quote symbol=ttwo]

Square, Inc. [stock_quote symbol=sq]

Verizon [stock_quote symbol=vz]

Mosaic [stock_quote symbol=mos]

Intel [stock_quote symbol=intc]

Cisco [stock_quote symbol=csco]

US Bank [stock_quote symbol=usb]

Johnson & Johnson [stock_quote symbol=jnj]

JP Morgan Chase [stock_quote symbol=jpm]




You have restored my faith in growth stocks! You just won’t quit and if anyone else had read their projections for 2018 you would have done what I did and buy, buy, buy!!

[stock_quote symbol=nvda]

I own the equivalent of 600 shares by way of many CALL options. Below is the list of said calls and I stupidly waited for a dip so I could buy four (4) more for a grand total of 1000 shares. It appears I waited too long for a dip and missed a really good opportunity. Will it pull back? Hopefully. For now…I’ll just sit back and watch.

ONE (1) DEC 110 CALL UP 28.55%
ONE (1) JAN 110 CALL UP 33.09%
ONE (1) JAN 145 CALL UP 47.23%
THREE (3) JAN 2019 125 CALL UP 22.06%

Remember, this is after I cleared 551%, 240% and 206% on three (3) other calls I really, really, stupidly sold profitable a week or so ago. Oh, I wish I had those back!

Why did I move to the JAN 2019 CALL’s? Well, I’m smart enough to know I have to actually have the money to call these shares if I decide to do so and I wanted to spread the load between years honestly. I do plan on calling them ALL. Besides, the faster it goes up the more time value of the option I keep as well.


I told Hillary (my girlfriend for those of you who are new) yesterday that the problem with waiting for a dip with a stock like this is that by the time it dips or the market crashes it could be $165.00 per share. This means it wouldn’t dip back to maybe $140.00 per share which is where it was last week! Who would have thought it would hit $165.00 in a few days!! So I screwed up…I could have transferred funds to buy more calls, but I was waiting to see what happened.


I think so…at least a little. I’m preparing to transfer funds over the next few weeks and maybe if I’m lucky it will pull back after labor day. For now…fun times. Has anybody seen it after hours?? Holy smokes…





Some of you may be wondering how I went from being up 26% YTD to roughly 12.5%…and I wouldn’t blame you. It turns out the more money you deposit the more profitable you must be to keep the YTD gains looking good. I’m not sure how else to calculate it and I must admit this problem is quite frustrating. If you deduct my last $10,000.00 deposit I am still up a significant amount YTD.

That’s the problem! The recent 10k has not been allocated to anything, is sitting in cash and therefore has made no money. It should, technically, not be counted in the YTD gain / loss calculation, but I have no choice. Thus, it reduces my overall YTD gain. Bummer…

Also, for those of you who are really paying attention, you may notice the YTD gain dollar amount is also lower. This is a result of a secret trade that I will not discuss just yet. I will say this: the commission on the trade was nearly $1,000.00 which should tell you something…



MONDAY, JUNE 5, 2017

JUNE 5, 2017

Well, steady as she goes is the phrase of late. I have been gradually buying and selling while listening to the constant BS on the television. I’ve never heard more negativity and the sky is falling than I have lately. Man, it gets really old. People have been saying we were headed for a recession and the market is going to crash for years now. Everyday they continue to ask “so is this the top” and it makes me nauseated. Everyday the market goes higher. Yes, understand this cannot last forever, but I truly believe things are better than some would like you to believe.


If you plan your portfolio correctly you can safely ignore everything everyone says or debates especially in the short-term. Sure, there are geopolitical events and individual corporate news that can increase volatility and cause dips, but these moments should be considered buying opportunities. Overall I believe things are quite good.

I wake up each morning hoping for a serious market crash. I want 1000 points off the DOW. I want the NASDAQ to get crushed so that everyone can finally say they were right and we can move on. I want a crash that scares the tech sector so badly that my favorite stocks get hammered for no reason!

If you keep this mentality, buy accordingly, keep at least 30% in cash at all times then the market cannot hurt you. Actually, there is one more: always plan to call the shares regardless. If your goal is to slowly accumulate shares and you’re using DITM, far out expiration options then you have nothing to worry about. All you have to do is make sure you are buying strikes you are willing (and can afford) to buy. This way if a trade goes against you then you can simply call the shares and wait. Eventually things will recover (if you’re buying good companies). You must expect declines and anticipate them. Be prepared.

I heard someone say this morning that if you, as an investor, cannot handle a 7% decline in a stock then you simply do not and should not be in the market. Period. That’s a 7% decline! I agreed completely. In fact, I look for 8% declines so I can add to positions when most are capitulating. If you are scared to be “down” then you need to walk away.

Plan to not care and you will be fine…I promise. Panic is not a strategy…but holding long-term is.


During my travels this past weekend I was amazed at the number of new construction projects I saw across the South and the size of the projects. My goodness there is some serious building going on out there. This along with the fact we counted 24 new car temp tags on Sunday alone (after we decided to start counting) I would say auto sales are good and people are out buying. I’d never seen so many new cars! The population is growing, and things are cooking right now. Take advantage while you can…


All it takes is looking around and you will notice things that can and will make you money. We stopped at a Wendy’s [stock_quote symbol=wen] in Texas for lunch on Friday and I had the pleasure of trying one of their new Power Mediterranean salads. Wow! I purchased a JAN 15 CALL while eating because of that salad. Good for Wendy’s for branching out!

I watch everything when I’m out and about and I keep an eye on my favorite companies. How many people are shopping, are the stores clean, do they have what I need, is the staff friendly and happy, what do the bathrooms look like? Bathrooms, in my opinion, are always the first to be forgotten. If the bathrooms are clean then more than likely management has control. I watch everything and what I see plays a huge role in what I own.




[stock_quote symbol=nvda]

I’ll be honest with everyone and admit I could not resist selling my remaining JUNE 100 CALL this afternoon. I cashed out with a nice 551% gain. That’s not a typo I assure you. If you think you cannot make more than 4% in the market you’re wrong.

Now, why did I sell? I’m sure that’s the big question right? Keep in mind I still own a JAN 90 CALL that’s up 176% so I’m not out of NVDA completely. I just have enough experience to know when to fold’em. It is very easy to get caught up in the momentum and convince yourself that a stock is just going to keep going up. Sometimes they do and I’m sure this will be one of those times, but the risk, currently, is to the downside.


Therefore, I will continue to hold the JAN 90 CALL and call the shares as soon as I have the funds (early or not I want them). I will wait patiently and hope NVDA pull’s back into the mid to lower 120’s. Maybe it’s wishful thinking, I understand that, but 551% is not something you don’t capture.


My thought process was simple: let’s say I called the JUNE 100 tomorrow and held the 100 shares with a cost basis of $100 per share. I would be up $34.00 per share as of right now (roughly) or $3,400.00. My profit on this call was indeed $3,400.00 right now. Today. Without waiting or calling the shares.

To call the shares I would have to come up with $10,000.00 by the third Friday in June (expiration day for the option). I have the money, but don’t want to dip into that pot just yet. To make another $3,400.00 NVDA would have to move on to $165.00 per share which happens to be the new price target Goldman Sach’s issued this morning.

Sure, I believe without a doubt, that NVDA will be $165.00 per share within the next twelve months. Will it get there by June? Probably not (who knows). Is it more likely we have a market down day and a minor selloff in NVDA? I, again, believe yes is the answer. It probably won’t be a large selloff and it might be so fast you could miss it if you’re eating lunch, but it could still happen and when it does I will be ready to double-down on the JAN 90 CALL!


Also, keep in mind, I owned 300 shares (or three) worth of options on NVDA which would have cost $29,000.00 to call. My portfolio currently doesn’t equal that much. I planned on transferring funds into the portfolio to call the shares, but the balance at that point would be $60,000.00 and HALF would have been NVDA.

I do not like having any one holding totaling more than 5% of my portfolio. Currently, I am overweight several including Intel [stock_quote symbol=intc] and GE [stock_quote symbol=ge]. The thought of half being in NVDA was just a little too much for me to swallow for the year. This was also a deciding factor in my decision to cash out of the JUNE call’s completely.

I am 100% confident I will regret selling the two JUNE call’s…I am well aware of this fact.



lc500LEXUS LC500

Ok, so this post doesn’t have much to do with the market, but more about what to do with your gains! Those who know me know I love cars. I have owned literally over 100 and, yes, I have lost money on every one. Because of the later part of that last sentence I now get nauseated when I walk through a car lot even when it’s my beloved BMW. I cannot stand to even think about buying a car of any kind. I hate the idea. I hate it so much I drive around in a piece of s*** 2009 F150 fleet truck just because it’s paid for and I refuse to pay for anything else. Nothing on the market today is worth the money – absolutely nothing.


Ok, that’s not exactly true. My company car is officially a cute little white (leased) BMW 320i. Did I lease another M3? No! Did I lease a cool, black 550i twin-turbo or M5? No! I leased the cheapest 320i I could find and only for two (2) years! The thought of owning anything longer than that (except real estate and stocks), again, nauseates me. The worry, stress and anxiety of owning (leasing) exotic $100,000 automobiles is just too much for me these days. The cost of ownership of any vehicle is simply too high. Always lease as well.

There are two main reasons I didn’t lease a new M3: the seats are freak’n terrible and BMW stupidly eliminated the extremely awesome V8 in the latest generation. A V8 that also had an amazing sound upon initial start. This brings me too…


Out of the blue I’m minding my own business watching television and Lexus decides to show me their new LC500!! A true-to-life concept car that has apparently made it to production. Not only that, but with a normally-aspirated (non-turbo, no supercharger) good ol’ fashioned V-freak’n-8! Yes, Lexus installed a 5.0L V8 in their latest coupe and the car looks amazing. Almost fake…

lexusThank you Lexus for having the guts in this EPA restricted world to produce a V8 and throw the turbo out the window too. You got my attention and now you have my respect. Sure, after configuring online, it will cost roughly $105,000, but this is the FIRST car in years that I would actually be willing to spend money on (if it’s comfortable).

The word “buy” is also a little strong. Let’s be honest you never “buy” a depreciating asset. You lease that puppy and that’s exactly what I would do for the shortest period allowable. If you cannot lease it you walk away.

I mean really, what else are you going to do with your money? Oh wait, that’s right…buy Nvidia [stock_quote symbol=nvda]! I’m still up over 400% on my JUNE 100 CALL’s! Whohoo!


So congratulations to Lexus for thinking outside the box and trying to build a car worth buying in a world where everything is the same. Where everything must be battery powered, be calm and kind having the excitement level of a root canal. Thank you Lexus for looking back in automobile history and realizing the V8 is not the devil and doesn’t need a turbo if built correctly.

I will indeed drive to the closest dealership (which I believe is in Brentwood, TN) and have a test drive. Depending on lease terms I could very well come home with one and if Lexus only knew how big a deal that really is they would have named this car the “JRD” ha!!

Lexus, you’ve restored my faith in humanity…good job! This my friends, is why we invest our money and save, save, save! As my father often says…patience.



Everyone is asking if I’m going to sell my JUNE 100 CALL’s on NVDA [stock_quote symbol=nvda] and capture the 410% gain. Well, after much debate, I have decided NO I am not selling. I am going to call the shares near or on expiration in June.

I am also up 140% on the JAN 90 CALL’s on NVDA and I plan to call those shares as well. Again, as stated in the last post, I am using options as a tool not a get-rich-quick method. I plan to accumulate and hold the companies I like.

In fact, I doubled down on GE [stock_quote symbol=ge] today.

Stock and Option Trading