Bull or Bust

a bull's view

January 20, 2016 – What a Day!

So today was full of excitement!

Up and down we go, but if you’re trading options this is fantastic! Before lunch, around 11:30 AM I noticed SBUX underlying stock price was hovering around $55.50 and I just couldn’t believe it. What a buying opportunity. I haven’t seen it this low since early last year and I kicked myself for not buying it then (especially when it split and sat at $48). So I purchased 20 of the March 16 60 Strike Call Options for $1 each resulting in a total purchase price of $2000 without the juice (commission). Pretty happy with that purchase I began looking at other options (pun intended) and went ahead and picked up March Alcoa, Chevron and Nike Call options as well. I had an order in for Ford, but cancelled it and doubled down on the SBUX March 16 60, again at $1. You just can’t pass up $55.50 and they report tomorrow! Normally, buying options the day before earnings is a bad idea, but I believe the market is way oversold and their earnings will be on the good side so we might just get a nice bounce upward.

So I doubled down on SBUX and when all was said and done I had “spent” or actually risked around $14,000 total. Several people laughed at my purchase of Chevron Call Options given the price and status of oil, but Chevron was hovering around $75 and I just saw it at $84 not a day or two ago. It’s moving around quite a bit – just what I like to see! Sure it could go back to $66, but not before a bounce! You must have large ones to play this game, so if you’re scared go read a book. After my purchases I went to lunch, enjoyed Newk’s as usual and really forgot about the market. Part of being successful at this is learning when (and how) to shut it off. Discipline my friends…easy to say…excruciatingly difficult to execute.

Around 2 PM I logged back into my trusty TD Ameritrade mobile app and wouldn’t you know it…I was up $4,500.00! Now that’s a good lunch! My Chevron was up over $600 due to the underlying stock price reaching damn near $80 before trailing off a bit. Starbucks was kicking ass and taking names making it back to $57.50 a $2 increase of the underlying in 2 hours roughly. Ford was up (I did purchase 500 shares of regular stock at $11.55 – excellent). My Nike option was up over a $1,000 alone so I sold that puppy. This goes to show you how quickly you can make money in the option world in just a matter of a few hours. Yes, you can lose it just as fast – disclaimer.

The discipline becomes increasingly important at this moment. Sure, we all love to see things going up. Your initial reaction is to hold it because you think it’s going to keep going. It’s human nature and there’s nothing wrong with you. Sometimes it does! Especially in a bull market which we are NOT in. Experience, however, tells me this is a bounce and not a trend so what do you do??? You sell the strength and buy the weakness. Plain and simple. Sounds easy, looks easy, everything is easy looking back, but when you’re in the moment it will be one of the hardest things you’ll ever do. Regardless, I sold the AA (Alcoa) and NKE (Nike) taking my profits – over $1200 combined in 2.5 hours. I kept the Starbucks, Ford and Chevron to fight another day. I will probably sell F and CVX tomorrow and keep SBUX until Friday. That’s the plan for now.

Today was up and down for sure. There were good times and bad, tears of fear and tears of joy, but that’s trading…

Ford Sollers Opens New Plant

Ford Sollers opened a new $275 million engine manufacturing plant in Russia. The purpose is to cut down on the number of imported components for Russian built automobiles. Ford is trying to spend 60 % of the total cost per vehicle within the country by 2020 to qualify for discounts on certain import duties on parts. The new plant, in the republic of Tatarstan, has the capacity to produce up to 105,000 engines a year, with the possibility of expansion to up to 200,000.

Ford (long hold): [stock_quote symbol=”f” show=”” zero=”” minus=”” plus=”” nolink=”” class=””]

Position Acquired – Amazon (AMZN)

Right before I decided to call it a day I noticed Amazon had fallen throughout the afternoon. It was hovering around $504.39 and, adhering to the rules of the game, I wanted to get in before the job report just in case the overall market jumped. Therefore, I purchased a small amount (25 shares @ $504.39) afterhours. Based on the current trading worksheet this purchase was above the 3% column and should not have been made, but Amazon (and the rest of the market) is actually down significantly this week already so I took the risk. My strategy is to purchase more if it continues to fall and I agree with the current 12 month target of $640.00. Love (and long) Amazon!

I currently hold positions in the following:

Amazon (long hold): [stock_quote symbol=”amzn” show=”” zero=”” minus=”” plus=”” nolink=”” class=””]

Netflix (short hold): [stock_quote symbol=”nflx” show=”” zero=”” minus=”” plus=”” nolink=”” class=””]

Ford (long hold): [stock_quote symbol=”f” show=”” zero=”” minus=”” plus=”” nolink=”” class=””]

Denbury Resources (not sure yet): [stock_quote symbol=”dnr” show=”” zero=”” minus=”” plus=”” nolink=”” class=””]

Avalon Rare Metals (until the end of time): [stock_quote symbol=”nyse:avl” show=”” zero=”” minus=”” plus=”” nolink=”” class=””]

US Jobs Report Released Friday!

The US Jobs Report will be released Friday, September 4, 2015. This has been highly anticipated by most and especially those who are active in the market. If the total number of new jobs for the month of August exceeds 200,000 it is likely the Fed’s will raise interest rates on September 17 from record lows. For any person trading or investing it is my opinion that no sizeable position in anything be acquired until this report is made public. After which buy on the dip…

Stock and Option Trading