Bull or Bust

a bull's view

NVIDIA-YOU HAD ME AT GAMING

ENOUGH IS ENOUGH NVIDIA!

NVDA 168,10 +0,60 +0,36%

I’ll be honest with everyone and admit I could not resist selling my remaining JUNE 100 CALL this afternoon. I cashed out with a nice 551% gain. That’s not a typo I assure you. If you think you cannot make more than 4% in the market you’re wrong.

Now, why did I sell? I’m sure that’s the big question right? Keep in mind I still own a JAN 90 CALL that’s up 176% so I’m not out of NVDA completely. I just have enough experience to know when to fold’em. It is very easy to get caught up in the momentum and convince yourself that a stock is just going to keep going up. Sometimes they do and I’m sure this will be one of those times, but the risk, currently, is to the downside.

PATIENCE

Therefore, I will continue to hold the JAN 90 CALL and call the shares as soon as I have the funds (early or not I want them). I will wait patiently and hope NVDA pull’s back into the mid to lower 120’s. Maybe it’s wishful thinking, I understand that, but 551% is not something you don’t capture.

MY THOUGHT PROCESS

My thought process was simple: let’s say I called the JUNE 100 tomorrow and held the 100 shares with a cost basis of $100 per share. I would be up $34.00 per share as of right now (roughly) or $3,400.00. My profit on this call was indeed $3,400.00 right now. Today. Without waiting or calling the shares.

To call the shares I would have to come up with $10,000.00 by the third Friday in June (expiration day for the option). I have the money, but don’t want to dip into that pot just yet. To make another $3,400.00 NVDA would have to move on to $165.00 per share which happens to be the new price target Goldman Sach’s issued this morning.

Sure, I believe without a doubt, that NVDA will be $165.00 per share within the next twelve months. Will it get there by June? Probably not (who knows). Is it more likely we have a market down day and a minor selloff in NVDA? I, again, believe yes is the answer. It probably won’t be a large selloff and it might be so fast you could miss it if you’re eating lunch, but it could still happen and when it does I will be ready to double-down on the JAN 90 CALL!

PROPER PORTFOLIO ALLOCATION

Also, keep in mind, I owned 300 shares (or three) worth of options on NVDA which would have cost $29,000.00 to call. My portfolio currently doesn’t equal that much. I planned on transferring funds into the portfolio to call the shares, but the balance at that point would be $60,000.00 and HALF would have been NVDA.

I do not like having any one holding totaling more than 5% of my portfolio. Currently, I am overweight several including Intel Intel Corporation 34,73 -0,02 -0,06% and GE GE 25,91 -0,78 -2,92%. The thought of half being in NVDA was just a little too much for me to swallow for the year. This was also a deciding factor in my decision to cash out of the JUNE call’s completely.

I am 100% confident I will regret selling the two JUNE call’s…I am well aware of this fact.

 

WHOA BOY! LEXUS LC500

lc500LEXUS LC500

Ok, so this post doesn’t have much to do with the market, but more about what to do with your gains! Those who know me know I love cars. I have owned literally over 100 and, yes, I have lost money on every one. Because of the later part of that last sentence I now get nauseated when I walk through a car lot even when it’s my beloved BMW. I cannot stand to even think about buying a car of any kind. I hate the idea. I hate it so much I drive around in a piece of s*** 2009 F150 fleet truck just because it’s paid for and I refuse to pay for anything else. Nothing on the market today is worth the money – absolutely nothing.

REALITY

Ok, that’s not exactly true. My company car is officially a cute little white (leased) BMW 320i. Did I lease another M3? No! Did I lease a cool, black 550i twin-turbo or M5? No! I leased the cheapest 320i I could find and only for two (2) years! The thought of owning anything longer than that (except real estate and stocks), again, nauseates me. The worry, stress and anxiety of owning (leasing) exotic $100,000 automobiles is just too much for me these days. The cost of ownership of any vehicle is simply too high. Always lease as well.

There are two main reasons I didn’t lease a new M3: the seats are freak’n terrible and BMW stupidly eliminated the extremely awesome V8 in the latest generation. A V8 that also had an amazing sound upon initial start. This brings me too…

THEN CAME LEXUS

Out of the blue I’m minding my own business watching television and Lexus decides to show me their new LC500!! A true-to-life concept car that has apparently made it to production. Not only that, but with a normally-aspirated (non-turbo, no supercharger) good ol’ fashioned V-freak’n-8! Yes, Lexus installed a 5.0L V8 in their latest coupe and the car looks amazing. Almost fake…

lexusThank you Lexus for having the guts in this EPA restricted world to produce a V8 and throw the turbo out the window too. You got my attention and now you have my respect. Sure, after configuring online, it will cost roughly $105,000, but this is the FIRST car in years that I would actually be willing to spend money on (if it’s comfortable).

The word “buy” is also a little strong. Let’s be honest you never “buy” a depreciating asset. You lease that puppy and that’s exactly what I would do for the shortest period allowable. If you cannot lease it you walk away.

I mean really, what else are you going to do with your money? Oh wait, that’s right…buy Nvidia NVDA 168,10 +0,60 +0,36%! I’m still up over 400% on my JUNE 100 CALL’s! Whohoo!

OH, HOW I LOVE A GOOD V8

So congratulations to Lexus for thinking outside the box and trying to build a car worth buying in a world where everything is the same. Where everything must be battery powered, be calm and kind having the excitement level of a root canal. Thank you Lexus for looking back in automobile history and realizing the V8 is not the devil and doesn’t need a turbo if built correctly.

I will indeed drive to the closest dealership (which I believe is in Brentwood, TN) and have a test drive. Depending on lease terms I could very well come home with one and if Lexus only knew how big a deal that really is they would have named this car the “JRD” ha!!

Lexus, you’ve restored my faith in humanity…good job! This my friends, is why we invest our money and save, save, save! As my father often says…patience.

THE GREAT DEBATE

THE GREAT DEBATE

Everyone is asking if I’m going to sell my JUNE 100 CALL’s on NVDA NVDA 168,10 +0,60 +0,36% and capture the 410% gain. Well, after much debate, I have decided NO I am not selling. I am going to call the shares near or on expiration in June.

I am also up 140% on the JAN 90 CALL’s on NVDA and I plan to call those shares as well. Again, as stated in the last post, I am using options as a tool not a get-rich-quick method. I plan to accumulate and hold the companies I like.

In fact, I doubled down on GE GE 25,91 -0,78 -2,92% today.

THANK YOU NVIDIA!

nvidiaTHANK YOU
NVIDIA!

I’ve been saying thank you a lot lately and yet the market just seems blah. The companies I like seem to be doing well and beating earnings which is a good thing and I’m not complaining! I’m just not sure why the market wants to be Debbie Downer all the time. Regardless, I just keep accumulating shares in companies I know and love. I have definitely stopped listening to the television and everyone argue over what might or might not happen. That gets nauseating after awhile.

EXERCISE TIME!

Intel Intel Corporation 34,73 -0,02 -0,06%

Tomorrow I will be exercising my May option to purchase 100 shares of Intel @ $34.00 per share. I have owned the MAY 34 CALL for several months knowing that I would call the shares regardless. I am slightly down on the call itself ($10), but plan to lower my cost basis by calling. I purchased the call to make sure Intel didn’t take off without me while I wait on funds. I now have the funds so I don’t care that it’s not expiration day, I’m calling per my original plan.

Nvidia NVDA 168,10 +0,60 +0,36%

I sold one (1) JUNE 100 CALL on Nvidia this morning at a nice 241% gain. Wow! I was going to hold and call at expiration, but decided not to be quite that overweight with NVDA (even though I really want to be). I want to add to other positions including Verizon VZ 44,23 +0,01 +0,02%.

I now hold one (1) JUNE 100 CALL and one (1) JAN 90 CALL on Nvidia. The January 90 call is currently up 87%! I plan to call both on expiration day (need more time to gather funds). This is the beauty of using options as a TOOL not a get-rich-quick scheme.

Trading options has a purpose and I just proved it with NVDA. I didn’t have the money to buy the shares a few months ago, but I will at expiration and I didn’t want to miss the ride.

THANK YOU MCDONALD’S!

McDonald'sTHANK YOU
MCDONALD’S!

Well today has been a great day on the market! Especially for McDonald’s! If you’re new to investing or trading do not make a rookie mistake and think this is a good time to get in. The old saying goes “sell when everyone is buying and buy when everyone is selling”. It’s the absolute truth and that’s why I sold my McDonald’s MCD 153,92 -0,29 -0,19% JAN 125 CALL @ a nice 50% profit!

WHAT NOW?

Sure, I believe MCD is going higher, but I also see the chart and I love charts. I have a rule: don’t buy anything on a spike always watch for gradual upward movement. All things that go up, must come down and I believe it will pullback to its normal trajectory. Maybe it won’t, but I have statistics on my side and all you would have is hope.

MY REAL QSR PLAY

Dominos DPZ 213,22 +0,78 +0,37%

I’m watching the JAN calls and the underlying stock price closely looking for a good time to buy on a bad day. It recently pulled back to the low 170’s, but I was too invested in other things to even buy the option. Now I have the cash on the sidelines and I’m patiently waiting. Of all the QSR’s I like including McDonald’s, Wendy’s and Starbucks…I choose Dominos because I have never seen another company leverage technology faster and more efficiently than its peers as Dominos. Not to mention their food quality has improved greatly over the years.

QSR=Quick Serve Restaurant

WHAT DID I DO TODAY?

Well, this may be foolish, but I’ve been trading and watching FCX for years now and I have been waiting for their earnings report to see how good or how bad it really is. I agree with Jim Cramer that FCX may have found or be hovering around a bottom in the mid-12’s. Therefore, I opened a small JAN 10 CALL position after this mornings gain began to settle. I would like my break even to be around $12.00 per share so I will slowly add to this position in the coming months if FCX decides to dip.

FCX is actually on my 2017 Stock Pick List published back in January as an infrastructure play. Back then it was $16.00 per share and you would be upside down currently (to say the least). If you purchased back then I would suggest you add to your position now (lowering your cost basis) and hopefully pull out ahead later this year.

 

MONDAY, APRIL 24, 2017

HOORAY!

What a day! I was a little concerned about the French election I won’t lie. I dumped all my “questionable” holdings Friday afternoon at the close regardless of profitability. I then purchased a small amount of GE GE 25,91 -0,78 -2,92% on the pullback after it reported earnings. I was actually waiting on this so it was not an impulse decision.

CURRENT HOLDINGS AFTER FRIDAY

AEO AEO 11,84 -0,23 -1,91%

GE GE 25,91 -0,78 -2,92%

INTC Intel Corporation 34,73 -0,02 -0,06%

KO KO 45,03 +0,21 +0,47%

MCD MCD 153,92 -0,29 -0,19%

NUE NUE 60,23 +0,31 +0,52%

NVDA NVDA 168,10 +0,60 +0,36%

VZ VZ 44,23 +0,01 +0,02%

THIS IS A BIG EARNINGS WEEK

I’m waiting for earnings this week and do not plan to purchase anything until after reports and may still wait a minimum of three (3) days to let everything settle. Hopefully something will crash and create a buying opportunity!

I’m also watching Verizon close and have a pending order for one (1) JAN 40 CALL @ $5.00 per. It is currently trading around $7.50 so I’m estimating that VZ would have to fall to the low 40’s before it would hit my goal of $5.00. I want my break even to be $45.00 per share for next January…time will tell!

THURSDAY, APRIL 20, 2017

WHAT I BOUGHT TODAY
(AND YESTERDAY)

McDonald’s MCD 153,92 -0,29 -0,19%

Purchased one (1) of the JAN 125 CALL @ $10.80 per contract for a  total of $1,080.00. Break even is $135.80 and I have until the third Friday of January 2018. You just have to love deep in the money far out call options I mean damn. I control $12,500.00 worth of stock for a hair over a grand! Currently up $37.00 @ $11.15 per.

Nucor NUE 60,23 +0,31 +0,52%

Purchased one (1) of the JAN 55 CALL @ $7.95 per contract for a total of $795.00. Break even is $62.95 and, again, I have until the third Friday of January 2018 to get to $62.95. I was watching the halftime report today on CNBC when Trump came on talking about steel and placing a tariff on China. I immediately purchased this call. I was already wanting Nucor and should have purchased it yesterday. Currently up $72.50 @ $8.675 per.

Viavi Solutions VIAV 11,25 +0,50 +4,65%

Purchased one hundred (100) shares of common stock @ $9.87 per share. Planning to hold through earnings in May. This may or may not become a long-term hold. Currently up $10.00 @ $9.97 per.

 

TUESDAY, APRIL 18, 2017

TAX DAY!

I seriously have a problem with the amount of taxes we must pay on an annual basis. I believe it to be legal extortion and will leave it at that. Luckily, this year, I finished and paid all taxes last month. Yay!

WHERE HAVE I BEEN?

Yes, it’s true, I have been missing in action for several weeks. I apologize, but my primary business has been extraordinarily busy this year and my daily workload has skyrocketed. I am not complaining, this is a great problem to have.

WHAT HAVE I BEEN BUYING?

I’ve been sitting out of the market for the most part while working. I have not had enough time to research and monitor as I have in the past. However, I am adding (slowly) to long-term positions in my primary portfolio. I liquidated my trading portfolio last month to pay the tax man. Below are stocks I purchased today:

Coca-Cola KO 45,03 +0,21 +0,47% Started a position in KO @ $42.95 per share. I got lucky pre-market before KO decided to take off to the mid 43’s.

Verizon VZ 44,23 +0,01 +0,02% Started a position in VZ @ $48.75 before earnings. I am prepared to double down if VZ dips after earnings.

WHAT DO I OWN?

Nvidia NVDA 168,10 +0,60 +0,36% I mean who doesn’t own it at this point? I have JUNE and JAN CALL options @ $100 and $90 strikes respectively.

Twilio TWLO 30,93 -0,13 -0,42% Another earnings play, but also plan on calling the shares. Currently hold the JULY 25 CALL.

American Eagle Outfitters AEO 11,84 -0,23 -1,91% I enjoy AEO apparel and hold this for the dividend and because I like the product. It is not performing well this year that’s for sure.

Dry Ships DRYS 2,17 -0,84 -27,91% This is my spec play. You have to have one (1) to make it fun.

Intel Intel Corporation 34,73 -0,02 -0,06% Just own it. Good dividend as well.

Hertz HTZ 15,80 -0,88 -5,28% Another spec play for earnings. Currently own the MAY 20 CALL. Earnings on May 8th.

WHAT ORDERS ARE PENDING?

Kroger KR 23,26 0,00 0,00% I have a small position order pending for Kroger. If you haven’t tried all their Kroger branded food such as their salsa…dude. I bought stock simply because of the salsa.

Verizon – double down order pending GTC EXT (good until cancelled extended hours) @ $45.00 per share in case it crashes after earnings.

 

 

THAT TIME OF YEAR

ejectTHAT TIME OF YEAR

Well, unfortunately, it’s that time of year again everyone…TAX TIME! The great Satan that is our federal government must take their share of our hard earned money. Each year I work approximately five (5) months for the IRS. When I type that I still get nauseated. I wonder what it was like back in the day when income tax didn’t exist? Imagine what that must have been like!

TRADING PORTFOLIO – EJECT! EJECT!

So, by popular demand from the IRS, I have liquidated my trading portfolio yet again and I’m starting over…yet again.  Sure, I suppose I could raise my salary or make those estimated tax payments every quarter to make my life easier, but that’s BORING! I would rather save the money during the year and trade than allow some bureaucrat or bean counter to buy a $4,000 hammer with it!

PORTFOLIO STATUS

You will see on the right that my balance has been significantly drained and I’m starting with a fresh $10,000.00. Yay! What am I doing with it? Well my trading children here we go…

INTEL Intel Corporation 34,73 -0,02 -0,06% should be on everyone’s shopping list this year. They’re paying a relatively dismal 2.85% dividend, but the growth potential is accelerating. I believe Intel is in the beginning of a stealth comeback and I’m a buyer. This 5G wireless technology coming soon to a lamp post near you is very intriguing.

AMERICAN EAGLE AEO 11,84 -0,23 -1,91% is also in the beginning of a stealth comeback. Now, maybe some of you will laugh at this one, and I totally understand. Most want to stay the hell away from retail currently (except my beloved Amazon), but AEO has it going on. They also happen to be my favorite blue jean at the moment an they actually fit me so I like to invest in companies that I actually like and support. It has been beaten down over the past year with the beat down in retail and I am slowly accumulating. They also pay a not too shabby 3.28% dividend. If you want more return sell the MAY 15 PUT @ $1.10 per contract and as long as AEO stays above $15.00 per share (which I think it will) you can average a nice 2.5% per month.

NVIDIA NVDA 168,10 +0,60 +0,36% has been the stock of the past year if you’ve been paying attention. Wow…what an amazing run, but is it over? I’m not convinced and I strongly believe it will be one of those stocks you will look back on in a year and it will be $150 per share. I am buying DITM long calls for June. For example, I purchased one (1) JUNE 100 CALL @ $10 and I’m looking to purchase the JUNE 90 CALL as well.

With such a low starting balance I cannot afford to purchase 500 or 1000 shares of a $100 stock so I’m using DITM (deep in the money) far out expiration call options as a stock replacement strategy.

VERIZON VZ 44,23 +0,01 +0,02% is also a long-term 5G technology play. I happen to like Verizon as a company as well and the CEO. It has recently been hammered into the upper 40’s and I consider that very much a buying opportunity. I would buy some shares now, sell some puts and wait for a pullback to buy more. Verizon pays a very nice 4.57% dividend. Yet, another reason to own the actual stock.

AMERICAN TOWER AMT 136,90 +0,66 +0,48% I could kick myself on this one. I was day trading it around the $103 per share mark with 500 shares at a time while it moved around a few bucks every day. Now look at it! I knew it was going higher and considering the estimated 300 billion (roughly) in infrastructure spending over the next seven (7) years with all the major wireless carriers I see nothing but good things for this company. Buy, buy, buy on any pullback. Dividend is ok at 2.06%

In the end, I’m used to starting over every year with my trading portfolio. However, this year I think I’m going to mix it up a bit and spend more time accumulating shares with my primary portfolio and selling puts against stock I want to own rather than day trading. My day job is much, much busier this year already (thanks Trump!) and I just don’t have the time to spend watching.

More to come…

 

2017 INVESTEMENT PICK LIST

stocks2017 PICK LIST

Here it is! The long awaited 2017 pick list! After much research and alcohol during the holidays the below list represents my 2017 primary portfolio (not trading) U.S. equity holdings!! Yay!

It took several weeks and some long hard nights to come up with this list. I even removed a few right before posting! It is a hard list to formulate and there are some companies I simply want to own, but know they’re either too damn risky or too high currently. I try hard to keep a minimum of twenty-five (25) holdings and lately I have had to trim some due to gains (can we say Netflix). Managing a large number of holdings is easy if you keep an eye on your total percentage of portfolio allocation per holding.

Below are the two (2) I just cut…sorry guys…

Caterpillar CAT 106,59 -0,73 -0,68% is just too high. If and when it dips I’ll be a buyer, but not here. I would like to own it long term and believe it is another infrastructure play. Besides, I just love to play with heavy equipment!

Pandora P 9,47 +0,33 +3,61% is just too risky. Too much competition and too much volatility for a primary investment portfolio. Now, I’m not saying I wouldn’t be selling the crap out of the 11 PUT, but for this portfolio Pandora doesn’t belong. Love the service though…and I like supporting companies I use daily.

2017 U.S. EQUITY HOLDINGS

I learned along time ago I am better at managing a portfolio (and cheaper too) than most money managers around my part of the country. Therefore, I built and monitor my own “fund” and watch the percentage allocation with respect to the total portfolio amount. I never let one holding equal more than 5% of my portfolio so I am protected from unexpected news, Trump tweets or whatever. Typically, the companies I hold within the primary portfolio I would buy on a dip every day of the week and twice on Sunday. I do not have to worry about my holdings because I would always be a buyer. This is why I also hold stocks that pay dividends so I’m always getting paid to wait.

The list and information would simply be too long to list here so I am going to include a link to a PDF below as well as add a menu item for the list and will update it periodically.

2017 PRIMARY INVESTEMENT PORTFOLIO – CLICK HERE!

PORTFOLIO NOTES

There are several that I will hold more than 5% and one in particular that I adore and has made me a ton of money in the last six (6) months is my beloved Amazon AMZN 1.025,67 -3,03 -0,29%. In fact, I owned five (5) of the APRIL 700 CALL with a cost basis of $101.76 per contract or roughly $50,000 worth a couple of weeks ago. I sold them all with a nice $3,000.00 profit within a two (2) day period as I have done many, many times. Today, had I simply held, those calls are now worth $141.00 per equating to a $20,000.00 profit in two (2) weeks. Yes, I’m still kicking myself…but I still love Amazon and no one ever got hurt taking a profit!

I realize most people say “retail investors” should not try to manage more than five (5) to ten (10) holdings. However, I have found the odds are in your favor the more you hold and, thus, the more diversified. It is simple math! I try to only hold solid companies that pay a dividend and from as many sectors as possible. It is also a good idea to include Gold, Real-Estate and TIPS as a way to hedge against market downturns.

 

 

Stock and Option Trading