Bull or Bust

a bull's view

YTD STATUS REPORT

YTD STATUS REPORT

Some of you may be wondering how I went from being up 26% YTD to roughly 12.5%…and I wouldn’t blame you. It turns out the more money you deposit the more profitable you must be to keep the YTD gains looking good. I’m not sure how else to calculate it and I must admit this problem is quite frustrating. If you deduct my last $10,000.00 deposit I am still up a significant amount YTD.

That’s the problem! The recent 10k has not been allocated to anything, is sitting in cash and therefore has made no money. It should, technically, not be counted in the YTD gain / loss calculation, but I have no choice. Thus, it reduces my overall YTD gain. Bummer…

Also, for those of you who are really paying attention, you may notice the YTD gain dollar amount is also lower. This is a result of a secret trade that I will not discuss just yet. I will say this: the commission on the trade was nearly $1,000.00 which should tell you something…

NO REWARD WITHOUT RISK!

 

MONDAY, JUNE 5, 2017

mondayMONDAY
JUNE 5, 2017

Well, steady as she goes is the phrase of late. I have been gradually buying and selling while listening to the constant BS on the television. I’ve never heard more negativity and the sky is falling than I have lately. Man, it gets really old. People have been saying we were headed for a recession and the market is going to crash for years now. Everyday they continue to ask “so is this the top” and it makes me nauseated. Everyday the market goes higher. Yes, understand this cannot last forever, but I truly believe things are better than some would like you to believe.

PLAN TO NOT CARE

If you plan your portfolio correctly you can safely ignore everything everyone says or debates especially in the short-term. Sure, there are geopolitical events and individual corporate news that can increase volatility and cause dips, but these moments should be considered buying opportunities. Overall I believe things are quite good.

I wake up each morning hoping for a serious market crash. I want 1000 points off the DOW. I want the NASDAQ to get crushed so that everyone can finally say they were right and we can move on. I want a crash that scares the tech sector so badly that my favorite stocks get hammered for no reason!

If you keep this mentality, buy accordingly, keep at least 30% in cash at all times then the market cannot hurt you. Actually, there is one more: always plan to call the shares regardless. If your goal is to slowly accumulate shares and you’re using DITM, far out expiration options then you have nothing to worry about. All you have to do is make sure you are buying strikes you are willing (and can afford) to buy. This way if a trade goes against you then you can simply call the shares and wait. Eventually things will recover (if you’re buying good companies). You must expect declines and anticipate them. Be prepared.

I heard someone say this morning that if you, as an investor, cannot handle a 7% decline in a stock then you simply do not and should not be in the market. Period. That’s a 7% decline! I agreed completely. In fact, I look for 8% declines so I can add to positions when most are capitulating. If you are scared to be “down” then you need to walk away.

Plan to not care and you will be fine…I promise. Panic is not a strategy…but holding long-term is.

ECONOMIC STATUS

During my travels this past weekend I was amazed at the number of new construction projects I saw across the South and the size of the projects. My goodness there is some serious building going on out there. This along with the fact we counted 24 new car temp tags on Sunday alone (after we decided to start counting) I would say auto sales are good and people are out buying. I’d never seen so many new cars! The population is growing, and things are cooking right now. Take advantage while you can…

KNOWING IS HALF THE BATTLE (G.I. JOE)

All it takes is looking around and you will notice things that can and will make you money. We stopped at a Wendy’s Unfortunately, we could not get stock quote wen this time. in Texas for lunch on Friday and I had the pleasure of trying one of their new Power Mediterranean salads. Wow! I purchased a JAN 15 CALL while eating because of that salad. Good for Wendy’s for branching out!

I watch everything when I’m out and about and I keep an eye on my favorite companies. How many people are shopping, are the stores clean, do they have what I need, is the staff friendly and happy, what do the bathrooms look like? Bathrooms, in my opinion, are always the first to be forgotten. If the bathrooms are clean then more than likely management has control. I watch everything and what I see plays a huge role in what I own.

MORE TO COME…

GE NEWS – CEO INSIDER BUYING

geGE CEO
INSIDER BUYING

Unfortunately, we could not get stock quote ge this time.

Chairman and CEO Jeffrey Immelt BUYS 100,000 shares @ average price of $28.07 per share.

Bullorbust currently has a BUY rating on GE and holds a small position having doubled-down last week @ $28.63 per share.

NVIDIA-YOU HAD ME AT GAMING

ENOUGH IS ENOUGH NVIDIA!

Unfortunately, we could not get stock quote nvda this time.

I’ll be honest with everyone and admit I could not resist selling my remaining JUNE 100 CALL this afternoon. I cashed out with a nice 551% gain. That’s not a typo I assure you. If you think you cannot make more than 4% in the market you’re wrong.

Now, why did I sell? I’m sure that’s the big question right? Keep in mind I still own a JAN 90 CALL that’s up 176% so I’m not out of NVDA completely. I just have enough experience to know when to fold’em. It is very easy to get caught up in the momentum and convince yourself that a stock is just going to keep going up. Sometimes they do and I’m sure this will be one of those times, but the risk, currently, is to the downside.

PATIENCE

Therefore, I will continue to hold the JAN 90 CALL and call the shares as soon as I have the funds (early or not I want them). I will wait patiently and hope NVDA pull’s back into the mid to lower 120’s. Maybe it’s wishful thinking, I understand that, but 551% is not something you don’t capture.

MY THOUGHT PROCESS

My thought process was simple: let’s say I called the JUNE 100 tomorrow and held the 100 shares with a cost basis of $100 per share. I would be up $34.00 per share as of right now (roughly) or $3,400.00. My profit on this call was indeed $3,400.00 right now. Today. Without waiting or calling the shares.

To call the shares I would have to come up with $10,000.00 by the third Friday in June (expiration day for the option). I have the money, but don’t want to dip into that pot just yet. To make another $3,400.00 NVDA would have to move on to $165.00 per share which happens to be the new price target Goldman Sach’s issued this morning.

Sure, I believe without a doubt, that NVDA will be $165.00 per share within the next twelve months. Will it get there by June? Probably not (who knows). Is it more likely we have a market down day and a minor selloff in NVDA? I, again, believe yes is the answer. It probably won’t be a large selloff and it might be so fast you could miss it if you’re eating lunch, but it could still happen and when it does I will be ready to double-down on the JAN 90 CALL!

PROPER PORTFOLIO ALLOCATION

Also, keep in mind, I owned 300 shares (or three) worth of options on NVDA which would have cost $29,000.00 to call. My portfolio currently doesn’t equal that much. I planned on transferring funds into the portfolio to call the shares, but the balance at that point would be $60,000.00 and HALF would have been NVDA.

I do not like having any one holding totaling more than 5% of my portfolio. Currently, I am overweight several including Intel Unfortunately, we could not get stock quote intc this time. and GE Unfortunately, we could not get stock quote ge this time.. The thought of half being in NVDA was just a little too much for me to swallow for the year. This was also a deciding factor in my decision to cash out of the JUNE call’s completely.

I am 100% confident I will regret selling the two JUNE call’s…I am well aware of this fact.

 

WHOA BOY! LEXUS LC500

lc500LEXUS LC500

Ok, so this post doesn’t have much to do with the market, but more about what to do with your gains! Those who know me know I love cars. I have owned literally over 100 and, yes, I have lost money on every one. Because of the later part of that last sentence I now get nauseated when I walk through a car lot even when it’s my beloved BMW. I cannot stand to even think about buying a car of any kind. I hate the idea. I hate it so much I drive around in a piece of s*** 2009 F150 fleet truck just because it’s paid for and I refuse to pay for anything else. Nothing on the market today is worth the money – absolutely nothing.

REALITY

Ok, that’s not exactly true. My company car is officially a cute little white (leased) BMW 320i. Did I lease another M3? No! Did I lease a cool, black 550i twin-turbo or M5? No! I leased the cheapest 320i I could find and only for two (2) years! The thought of owning anything longer than that (except real estate and stocks), again, nauseates me. The worry, stress and anxiety of owning (leasing) exotic $100,000 automobiles is just too much for me these days. The cost of ownership of any vehicle is simply too high. Always lease as well.

There are two main reasons I didn’t lease a new M3: the seats are freak’n terrible and BMW stupidly eliminated the extremely awesome V8 in the latest generation. A V8 that also had an amazing sound upon initial start. This brings me too…

THEN CAME LEXUS

Out of the blue I’m minding my own business watching television and Lexus decides to show me their new LC500!! A true-to-life concept car that has apparently made it to production. Not only that, but with a normally-aspirated (non-turbo, no supercharger) good ol’ fashioned V-freak’n-8! Yes, Lexus installed a 5.0L V8 in their latest coupe and the car looks amazing. Almost fake…

lexusThank you Lexus for having the guts in this EPA restricted world to produce a V8 and throw the turbo out the window too. You got my attention and now you have my respect. Sure, after configuring online, it will cost roughly $105,000, but this is the FIRST car in years that I would actually be willing to spend money on (if it’s comfortable).

The word “buy” is also a little strong. Let’s be honest you never “buy” a depreciating asset. You lease that puppy and that’s exactly what I would do for the shortest period allowable. If you cannot lease it you walk away.

I mean really, what else are you going to do with your money? Oh wait, that’s right…buy Nvidia Unfortunately, we could not get stock quote nvda this time.! I’m still up over 400% on my JUNE 100 CALL’s! Whohoo!

OH, HOW I LOVE A GOOD V8

So congratulations to Lexus for thinking outside the box and trying to build a car worth buying in a world where everything is the same. Where everything must be battery powered, be calm and kind having the excitement level of a root canal. Thank you Lexus for looking back in automobile history and realizing the V8 is not the devil and doesn’t need a turbo if built correctly.

I will indeed drive to the closest dealership (which I believe is in Brentwood, TN) and have a test drive. Depending on lease terms I could very well come home with one and if Lexus only knew how big a deal that really is they would have named this car the “JRD” ha!!

Lexus, you’ve restored my faith in humanity…good job! This my friends, is why we invest our money and save, save, save! As my father often says…patience.

THE GREAT DEBATE

THE GREAT DEBATE

Everyone is asking if I’m going to sell my JUNE 100 CALL’s on NVDA Unfortunately, we could not get stock quote nvda this time. and capture the 410% gain. Well, after much debate, I have decided NO I am not selling. I am going to call the shares near or on expiration in June.

I am also up 140% on the JAN 90 CALL’s on NVDA and I plan to call those shares as well. Again, as stated in the last post, I am using options as a tool not a get-rich-quick method. I plan to accumulate and hold the companies I like.

In fact, I doubled down on GE Unfortunately, we could not get stock quote ge this time. today.

THANK YOU NVIDIA!

nvidiaTHANK YOU
NVIDIA!

I’ve been saying thank you a lot lately and yet the market just seems blah. The companies I like seem to be doing well and beating earnings which is a good thing and I’m not complaining! I’m just not sure why the market wants to be Debbie Downer all the time. Regardless, I just keep accumulating shares in companies I know and love. I have definitely stopped listening to the television and everyone argue over what might or might not happen. That gets nauseating after awhile.

EXERCISE TIME!

Intel Unfortunately, we could not get stock quote intc this time.

Tomorrow I will be exercising my May option to purchase 100 shares of Intel @ $34.00 per share. I have owned the MAY 34 CALL for several months knowing that I would call the shares regardless. I am slightly down on the call itself ($10), but plan to lower my cost basis by calling. I purchased the call to make sure Intel didn’t take off without me while I wait on funds. I now have the funds so I don’t care that it’s not expiration day, I’m calling per my original plan.

Nvidia Unfortunately, we could not get stock quote nvda this time.

I sold one (1) JUNE 100 CALL on Nvidia this morning at a nice 241% gain. Wow! I was going to hold and call at expiration, but decided not to be quite that overweight with NVDA (even though I really want to be). I want to add to other positions including Verizon Unfortunately, we could not get stock quote vz this time..

I now hold one (1) JUNE 100 CALL and one (1) JAN 90 CALL on Nvidia. The January 90 call is currently up 87%! I plan to call both on expiration day (need more time to gather funds). This is the beauty of using options as a TOOL not a get-rich-quick scheme.

Trading options has a purpose and I just proved it with NVDA. I didn’t have the money to buy the shares a few months ago, but I will at expiration and I didn’t want to miss the ride.

THANK YOU MCDONALD’S!

McDonald'sTHANK YOU
MCDONALD’S!

Well today has been a great day on the market! Especially for McDonald’s! If you’re new to investing or trading do not make a rookie mistake and think this is a good time to get in. The old saying goes “sell when everyone is buying and buy when everyone is selling”. It’s the absolute truth and that’s why I sold my McDonald’s Unfortunately, we could not get stock quote mcd this time. JAN 125 CALL @ a nice 50% profit!

WHAT NOW?

Sure, I believe MCD is going higher, but I also see the chart and I love charts. I have a rule: don’t buy anything on a spike always watch for gradual upward movement. All things that go up, must come down and I believe it will pullback to its normal trajectory. Maybe it won’t, but I have statistics on my side and all you would have is hope.

MY REAL QSR PLAY

Dominos Unfortunately, we could not get stock quote dpz this time.

I’m watching the JAN calls and the underlying stock price closely looking for a good time to buy on a bad day. It recently pulled back to the low 170’s, but I was too invested in other things to even buy the option. Now I have the cash on the sidelines and I’m patiently waiting. Of all the QSR’s I like including McDonald’s, Wendy’s and Starbucks…I choose Dominos because I have never seen another company leverage technology faster and more efficiently than its peers as Dominos. Not to mention their food quality has improved greatly over the years.

QSR=Quick Serve Restaurant

WHAT DID I DO TODAY?

Well, this may be foolish, but I’ve been trading and watching FCX for years now and I have been waiting for their earnings report to see how good or how bad it really is. I agree with Jim Cramer that FCX may have found or be hovering around a bottom in the mid-12’s. Therefore, I opened a small JAN 10 CALL position after this mornings gain began to settle. I would like my break even to be around $12.00 per share so I will slowly add to this position in the coming months if FCX decides to dip.

FCX is actually on my 2017 Stock Pick List published back in January as an infrastructure play. Back then it was $16.00 per share and you would be upside down currently (to say the least). If you purchased back then I would suggest you add to your position now (lowering your cost basis) and hopefully pull out ahead later this year.

 

MONDAY, APRIL 24, 2017

HOORAY!

What a day! I was a little concerned about the French election I won’t lie. I dumped all my “questionable” holdings Friday afternoon at the close regardless of profitability. I then purchased a small amount of GE Unfortunately, we could not get stock quote ge this time. on the pullback after it reported earnings. I was actually waiting on this so it was not an impulse decision.

CURRENT HOLDINGS AFTER FRIDAY

AEO Unfortunately, we could not get stock quote aeo this time.

GE Unfortunately, we could not get stock quote ge this time.

INTC Unfortunately, we could not get stock quote intc this time.

KO Unfortunately, we could not get stock quote ko this time.

MCD Unfortunately, we could not get stock quote mcd this time.

NUE Unfortunately, we could not get stock quote nue this time.

NVDA Unfortunately, we could not get stock quote nvda this time.

VZ Unfortunately, we could not get stock quote vz this time.

THIS IS A BIG EARNINGS WEEK

I’m waiting for earnings this week and do not plan to purchase anything until after reports and may still wait a minimum of three (3) days to let everything settle. Hopefully something will crash and create a buying opportunity!

I’m also watching Verizon close and have a pending order for one (1) JAN 40 CALL @ $5.00 per. It is currently trading around $7.50 so I’m estimating that VZ would have to fall to the low 40’s before it would hit my goal of $5.00. I want my break even to be $45.00 per share for next January…time will tell!

THURSDAY, APRIL 20, 2017

WHAT I BOUGHT TODAY
(AND YESTERDAY)

McDonald’s Unfortunately, we could not get stock quote mcd this time.

Purchased one (1) of the JAN 125 CALL @ $10.80 per contract for a  total of $1,080.00. Break even is $135.80 and I have until the third Friday of January 2018. You just have to love deep in the money far out call options I mean damn. I control $12,500.00 worth of stock for a hair over a grand! Currently up $37.00 @ $11.15 per.

Nucor Unfortunately, we could not get stock quote nue this time.

Purchased one (1) of the JAN 55 CALL @ $7.95 per contract for a total of $795.00. Break even is $62.95 and, again, I have until the third Friday of January 2018 to get to $62.95. I was watching the halftime report today on CNBC when Trump came on talking about steel and placing a tariff on China. I immediately purchased this call. I was already wanting Nucor and should have purchased it yesterday. Currently up $72.50 @ $8.675 per.

Viavi Solutions Unfortunately, we could not get stock quote viav this time.

Purchased one hundred (100) shares of common stock @ $9.87 per share. Planning to hold through earnings in May. This may or may not become a long-term hold. Currently up $10.00 @ $9.97 per.

 

Stock and Option Trading