Bull or Bust

a bull's view

WELCOME 2018!

WELCOME 2018-GREAT START!

So unless you’ve been living under a rock all week you have probably heard the stock market is having a pretty good week. Everyone, including myself, was extremely nervous about this week due to possible selling or realizing of 2017 gains. I truly thought everyone was waiting for the new year to rollover so they could dump it all after such an amazing year.

Sometime around last Friday afternoon, after having sold several positions, I had the thought: what if next week starts higher and continues? Will that be a green light for everyone to keep holding or add new money? Well…

That thought appears to have been the correct one and I think that’s exactly what happened. We all waited Tuesday morning, the first day of trading for 2018, to see if everything crashed and when it didn’t, it was game-on…like seriously.

CURRENT HOLDINGS

For the most part I got it right and cleared some serious cash in just a few days. I was, technically, down from last week so I simply recovered plus a little. That sucks, but the part that really got me was the positions I sold last Friday afternoon purely out of fear of what might happen on Tuesday.  Those positions would have made me another $25,000.00 this week!!

Yeah, that hurts to think about, of course, if you do the math you should realize I had a lot at risk and that’s why I sold on Friday. I just didn’t have the balls to hold that much into the new year. It was a 50/50 shot and I lost. Ok, “lost” is a bad word. I did not realize the full profit potential of the market. I did not “lose” anything I already had. Just for clarification…

I hold options in the following US equities and ETF’s:

Home Depot (HD)
Intel (INTC)
3M (MMM)
Nvidia (NVDA)
Rite Aid (RAD)
S&P 500 (SPY)
Square Inc (SQ)
Wal-Mart (WMT)
Energy Select ETF (XLE)

JANUARY 2018

I am still not convinced we won’t see a market correction or at least some form of pullback in the month of January if not February. In my opinion, we have moved too high too fast and I’m really hoping for a dip. I would love to own more, but valuations are just too high on many of my favorite companies.

For example: I want to add Best Buy (BBY) for the long-term badly. I owned it at $53.00 and sold it around $57-$58 if I remember correctly. It is now $67.00 and some change. I never thought it would go this high so fast and would love to see it come back down to the low 60’s at least so I could buy the 50 calls and have a break even in the neighborhood of $65.00 per share ($60 would be better).

CES 2018

Also, keep in mind the CES show in Las Vegas starts this weekend and the Nvidia (NVDA) CEO is supposed to give a presentation and discuss new technology. This should be interesting and provide a nice bounce in stock price come Monday (wishful thinking?).

Stock and Option Trading